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4 Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
INTRODUCTION 9
Background 9
Aim and approach 9
METHODOLOGY 11
What did we do? 11
How did we do it? 11
Boundaries of the study 18
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 19
Task 1: Literature review and fleet renewal scheme descriptions 19
Task 2: Impact on fleet composition 20
Task 3: Impact on Tank to Wheel (TTW) CO
2
emissions 23
Task 4: Impact on Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) NO
x
emissions and
semi-quantitative PM emissions 29
Task 5: Impact on traffic safety 35
Task 6: Societal cost effectiveness in relation to CO
2
, NO
x
and safety 37
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
ANNEX 1 (SWOV) – SAFETY IMPACT OF THE CARS PROGRAM FLEET RENEWAL
SCHEME IN THE UNITED STATES 47
ANNEX 2 (SWOV) – SAFETY IMPACT OF THE UMWELTPRÄMIE FLEET RENEWAL
SCHEME IN GERMANY 57
ANNEX 3 (SWOV) – SAFETY IMPACT OF THE PRIME `A LA CASSE FLEET RENEWAL
SCHEME IN FRANCE 65

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Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background
Fleet renewal schemes are often introduced as a way of stimulating consumer spending
and/or assisting car manufacturers and dealers in times of economic duress. During the
economic crisis of 2008-2009, many countries implemented such schemes claiming that
not only were they important in terms of economic stimulus, but that they also deliver
significant CO
2
and pollution reduction benefits. Following on from work undertaken in 1999
by the ECMT, the Global Fuel Economy Initiative
1
sought to revisit the latter claims and
evaluate the safety impacts of these schemes. This study does not look at employment or
stimulus-related benefits but seeks to assess how fleet renewal might best be designed to
maximise CO
2
, NO
x
, particulate matter and safety outcomes.
This study assesses three qualitatively different schemes: the French Prime à la Casse, the
German Umweltprämie and the US Cars program. It assesses their cost-effectiveness in
relation to reducing CO
2
and NO
x
emissions and improving road safety.
Accelerated vehicle replacement schemes have been implemented in many countries
around the world in recent years. These schemes are meant to have a number of different
effects. These can include:
• Support for the automobile industry (not just manufacturers, but also the dealers
and other related businesses) to decrease the likelihood of mass lay-offs and
increase consumer spending;
• Improving air quality;
• Reducing dependence on imported oil;
• Reducing CO
2
emissions;
• Improving road safety;
This report does not address the employment or stimulus-related impacts of fleet renewal
schemes which are arguably their primary objective. However, it does assess how well
representative schemes have reduced CO
2
and pollutant emissions and improved safety. It
also provides guidance on how such schemes introduced again in the future, can best be
used to improve CO
2
, NO
x
, particulate matter and safety outcomes.
The study examines the effectiveness of fleet renewal schemes in reducing CO
2
and NO
x

emissions, and improving road safety. It assesses the overall cost-effectiveness
(benefit/cost) for society of such schemes.
The study investigates the fleet renewal schemes implemented in the United States (CARS
program), Germany (Umweltprämie) and in France (Prime à la Casse) in 2009. These
three schemes were selected because they each display different designs and have
collected detailed enough data to undertake disaggregated analysis. The impacts of the
schemes are monetised, providing an approximate evaluation of their societal cost

1. www.globalfueleconomy.org
6 Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011
effectiveness in reducing CO
2
and NO
x
emissions and improving traffic safety (and
excluding any stimulus-related impact such as job creation/preservation). To be clear, the
present study only evaluates how well fleet renewal schemes deliver benefits beyond what
they may or may not deliver in terms of benefits/disbenefits related to automobile industry
support.
The key messages from this study can be summarised as follows:
• Insights on scheme design: For the monetized benefits in terms of CO
2
, NO
x
or
safety to exceed the costs associated with vehicle replacement, scheme design
should ensure that larger and older “dirty” vehicles are traded in for lighter, cleaner
ones. If anything else is allowed by the scheme, then CO
2
, NO
x
and safety benefits
are eroded. The schemes should ideally target older vehicles that are still being
driven. In Europe, for example, this means covering pre-1992 cars that predate Euro
standards and Euro-1 cars produced from 1992 to 1996. The US scheme saw
positive results from targeted incentives based on fuel economy, even if these were
imperfectly aligned with fuel consumption or pollutant emissions. The German
scheme involved a larger number of vehicles, but the class shift actually reduced the
total impacts (on average more lighter and smaller vehicles were traded in for
medium-sized vehicles than vice versa). The French scheme benefited from
imposing a type-approval CO
2
limit for new cars and retiring very old gross-emitters,
but that may have led to a very high share of new diesel vehicles, which strongly
limits lifetime NO
x
benefits. Increased awareness of the monetised societal benefits
of avoided NO
x
, in addition to CO
2
, might have helped to improve the overall cost-
effectiveness of the scheme. For example, the analysis in this report suggests that
there may have been a case for differentiated incentives for petrol and diesel
vehicles due to the monetised NO
x
impacts of diesels.
• Cost-effectiveness
2
: Figure 1 summarises this study’s findings regarding the cost-
effectiveness of the fleet renewal schemes analysed from the perspective of CO
2
and
NO
x
reduction and increased safety. From a societal perspective, the US scheme
cost nearly 1 billion Euro in destroyed assets (scrapped vehicles). The largest
monetised benefit comes from avoided NO
x
emissions (~500 M€), followed by
avoided casualties (~150 M€), leading to a total quantified recovery of approximately
80% of the societal cost
3
. Given that other possible benefits of the scheme were not
quantified or given, and accounting for the uncertainty associated with some of the
numbers (e.g. the average value of the scrapped cars), the US scheme may have
had benefits in line with its costs.
On a per-vehicle basis, the German scheme achieved lower CO
2
, NO
x
and safety
impacts throughout. As a result, it was less cost-effective in delivering beneficial CO
2
,
NO
x
and safety outcomes with the benefits quantified here representing only around
25% of the estimated costs.
In France the scheme succeeded in targeting the right vehicles for scrapping and
resulted in an estimated recovery of around 45%, but a much higher societal value
could have been reached through a more ambitious NO
x
reduction (which is the
effect with the largest potential for delivering societal benefit).

2. Considering cumulative but undiscounted impacts over the lifetime of the new car. Due to
uncertainties involved, all cost-estimates are rounded to the nearest 5M€.
3. Represented here by the value of the scrapped vehicle.

Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011 7
Figure 1. Cost-effectiveness of the French, German and US Fleet Renewal Schemes

Notes: See Box 1 for assumptions and values used in cost-effectiveness calculations
• Impacts on CO
2
: The 3 schemes reduced CO
2
emissions, not only in 2010, but also
cumulatively to 2030 (~100, ~200 and ~265 thousand tonnes cumulatively from 2010
to 2025 for the US, Germany and France respectively). However, the monetised
value of that impact seems quite small (<5 million Euro in the US, <10 MEuro in
Germany and France
4
) and the overall results suggest CO
2
abatement should not be
the main rationale for putting a fleet renewal scheme in place. The contributions
towards CO
2
reduction vary with the class and age of the scrapped vehicles, but
unfortunately the analysis does not clarify which age of vehicles to target – replacing
younger vehicles delivers more CO
2
reductions, but at higher societal economic cost.
• Impacts on NO
x
: The monetised NO
x
impact seems to be 1-2 orders of magnitude
higher than the CO
2
impact (~500 million euro in the US, ~300 MEuro in Germany,
~100 MEuro in France), and it does suggest which vehicles such a scheme ought to
target: in general, vehicles older than ~15 years. The French scheme shows that a
large share of diesels among replacement vehicles erodes the NO
x
impact, and
should thus be accounted for.
• Impacts on traffic safety: In the long run, the US scheme is estimated to avoid
~2800 serious injuries, of which ~40 fatalities. Electronic Stability Control and the
effect of general improvements in vehicle safety account for 70% of the impact. In
Germany, it is estimated that ~6100 injuries and ~60 fatalities will be avoided. Also

4. External cost of ~25 €/tonne in 2010, ~40 €/tonne in 2020 as per IMPACT Handbook
(Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Cost of Transport), for EC DG TREN,
2008.
Value of
scrapped
cars
Fuel savings CO
2
avoided
NO
x
avoided
Traffic
casaulties +
serious
injuries
avoided
Net societal
costs
France “Prime à la Casse”
100%
-9%
-2%
-17%
-18%
~54%
~555M€
-50M€
-10M€
-95M€
-100M€
~300M€
Germany “Umweltprämie”
~3000M€
-40M€
-10M€
-305M€
-410M€
~2235M€
100%
-1%
-0.3%
-10%
-14%
~75%
USA “CARS” program
100%
-2%
-1%
-58%
-18%
~22%
~850M€
-20M€
-5M€
-490M€
-150M€
~185M€
8 Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011
here, the conclusion seems to be that “older cars should be retired”. The French
scheme is estimated to have had a much more limited impact: only ~330 serious
injuries avoided, of which ~20 fatalities.
Figure 2. Overview and Insights into Fleet Renewal Scheme Design Parameters

Figure 2 summarises some of this study’s main findings regarding the design of fleet renewal
schemes so as to maximise societal benefits.
One of the key findings of this work is the necessity to put in place targeted incentives and
sufficient differentiation so as to capture not only CO
2
or fuel economy benefits but, more
importantly, NO
x
and safety benefits since these tend to outweigh the former for the fleet of
cars targeted by fleet renewal schemes. Another finding is the need to design schemes that
target older vehicles that are still in use – retiring vehicles that travel little provides minimal
benefits.
Finally, the figure highlights the complexity of trade-offs that may be involved in developing
effective fleet renewal schemes in terms of environmental and safety benefits. Schemes
seeking principally to reduce CO
2
emissions or improve fleetwide fuel economy should,
perhaps counter intuitively, target more recent vehicles since their higher vehicle kilometre
travel outweighs the per-kilometre emissions of older, less-used vehicles. It also
underscores the need to control for the type of replacement vehicle chosen in the fleet
renewal scheme – lower CO
2
-emitting diesels helped the CO
2
profile of the French scheme
but also eroded the lifetime benefits of the scheme due to an increase in relatively costly
NO
x
emissions.
Design Choice for desired target impact/objective
parameter
Cost
CO
2
NO
x
Safety effectiveness
Age of targeted Newer Older Older Older
vehicles
Class of targeted Heavier/ Heavier Unclear Heavier/
vehicles medium medium medium
Transaction New car: New car: New car: Retired car:
conditions lower fuel lower should have should still be
or at least consumption emission ‘proven’ safety in active use
‘incentives’ limits features
(e.g. ESC?)

Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011 9
INTRODUCTION
Background
Accelerated vehicle replacement schemes have been implemented in many countries
around the world in recent years. These schemes are meant to have a number of different
effects. These can include:
• Support for the automobile industry (not just manufacturers, but also dealers and
other related businesses) to decrease the likelihood of mass lay-offs and increase
consumer spending;
• Improve air quality;
• Reduce dependence on foreign oil;
• Reduce CO
2
emissions;
• Improve road safety;
The real-world impact of these schemes on CO
2
and pollutant emissions from road transport
is not really clear a priori. Nor is it clear what the impact of these schemes on road safety
may be. The Research Centre of the International Transport Forum at the OECD, the OECD
Environment Directorate and the FIA Foundation commissioned Dutch research and
consultancy organisation TNO to provide additional insight into the effect of early vehicle
replacement schemes in order to aid policy-makers intending to design and introduce such
schemes in the future.
Aim and approach
This study seeks to provide concrete guidance on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness
of fleet renewal schemes with respect to CO
2
and pollutant emissions reductions and
increased safety due to early fleet renewal.
The target audience for this study are national and sub-national policy-makers contemplating
implementing early vehicle retirement programmes. The study seeks in particular to provide
guidance on the environmental and safety impacts of these schemes in the future.
Secondary beneficiaries include staff of these policy-makers and researchers seeking to
evaluate the impacts of these schemes.
The study focused on three main topics:
1. The effectiveness of fleet renewal schemes in reducing fuel consumption and total
CO
2
emissions;
2. The effectiveness of fleet renewal schemes in reducing total NO
x
emissions;
3. An analysis of the traffic safety impacts of the schemes, so that the corresponding
reduction in casualties/injuries can be estimated. This is based on the changes in
fleet penetration of certain road safety related vehicle features brought about by the
schemes.
To that effect, the study investigates the fleet renewal schemes implemented in the United
States (CARS program), Germany (Umweltprämie) and in France (Prime à la Casse) in
2009. These three schemes were selected because they each display different designs and
have collected detailed enough data to undertake disaggregated analysis. The impacts of

10 Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011
the schemes are monetised, providing an approximate evaluation of their societal cost
effectiveness in reducing CO
2
and NO
x
emissions and improving traffic safety (and excluding
any stimulus-related impact such as any value attached to job creation/preservation). To be
clear, the present study only evaluates how well fleet renewal schemes deliver benefits
beyond what they may or may not deliver in terms of benefits/disbenefits related to
automobile industry support.

Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011 11
METHODOLOGY
What did we do?
The study consisted of collecting detailed disaggregate data on scheme transactions,
projecting impacts on vehicle fleet composition into the future, evaluating CO
2
, NO
x
and
safety impacts and monetising these (Figure 3):
Figure 3. Task Flow Chart for this Study

The impact of the different schemes was estimated for each of the 3 analysed vectors (CO
2
,
NO
x
and traffic safety). The associated monetised impacts were compared to the societal
costs of early vehicle retirement to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of the fleet renewal
schemes.
How did we do it?
Each of the 6 tasks outlined above entails the collection and calculation of relevant data.
Figure 4 describes the general workflow used in this study as described in more detail
below.
Task 1: Brief literature review and fleet renewal scheme descriptions
At the start of the study, available literature on the effects of accelerated vehicle replacement
schemes was reviewed. Also in task one, a comparative description of the fleet renewal
schemes was constructed. That description consists of at least:
• The conditions that apply for a pair of vehicles to be eligible for the incentive;
• The size of the incentive and possibly available alternatives, if they exist;
• The total budget available for the scheme;
• The number of vehicles retired under the scheme;
• A description of the vehicles that were retired (divided into vehicle classes);
• The number of new vehicles bought under the scheme;
• A description of the vehicles that were bought (divided into vehicle classes).

Data and
insights on
vehicle
fleet
renewal
Impact on
vehicle fleet
composition
(over 5, 10,
20 years)
Impact on
NO
x
reduction
Cost
effectiveness
Conclusions and
recommendations
Impact on
traffic safety
improvement
Impact on
CO
2
reduction

12 Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011
Figure 4. General methodology to assess fleet renewal schemes

TNO and OECD then collected detailed data from the national governments concerned
covering:
• The number of vehicles already retired under the schemes;
• A description of the vehicles that were retired;
• The number of new vehicles bought under the schemes;
• A description of the vehicles that were bought under the schemes;
• The average age composition of the vehicle fleet in the considered countries
• The average age at which vehicles were scrapped in the considered countries before
the schemes were in place.
The main source of data for the US CARS program was the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration’s (US Department of Transportation) official website for the scheme, available
at http://www.cars.gov/carsreport/
and accessed last in March 2010. At that moment, roughly
677 000 correct transactions had been recorded, although the final programme figures report
678 000 transactions
5
.
For Germany, the source for transaction information was the “Umweltprämie – Statistik”
interim release from the Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, available at
www.bafa.de
. The figures used in the analysis were the latest available as of April 2010,
which referred to 3/11/2009. For the ensuing calculations, the latest aggregate age figures
from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt were used (which referred to 5/1/2010 and added up to 1 658
000 transactions). As such, the vehicle class distributions were kept according to the interim
publication, but the aggregate results, and their age split, were proportionally expanded to
account for the larger confirmed transaction number.

5. Given the inefficiency of repeating the analysis, and the relatively marginal impact that the last
roughly 1000 vehicles could have in comparison with the overall ~670 thousand transactions,
the former were not included in the calculations described in this report.
Cars registered
Travelled fleet kms
Replacement cars
General fleet knowledge
-
vehicle class distribution
-km distribution with age
-
vehicle survival ratios
Business-As-
Usual fleet kms
Fleet km with
scrapping
scheme
Emissions by
BAU fleet

Emissions by fleet
with scheme in
2009

Casualty effects o
f

fleet renewal scheme
Penetration rates and
effects of safety features
Emission
factors (g/km)
Inputs Fleet impacts
CO
2
,NO
x
,
SafetyImpacts
Cost assessment
Cars scrapped
Monetised
change in
emissions
Monetised
change in
casualty effects

Car Fleet Renewal Schemes: Environmental and Safety Impacts © OECD/ITF 2011 13
The analysis of the French scheme was based on a transaction database supplied by the
Service de l'Observation et des Statistiques (SOeS) of the Ministry of Ecology, Energy,
Sustainable Development and the Sea in July 2010. This dataset was adjusted to account
only for the vehicles covered by the 2009 fleet renewal scheme (e.g. by excluding records
for vehicles and other motorised equipment that should not have qualified for the scheme
and those records for insufficiently identified scrapped or replacement vehicles). A core
dataset of 470 000 plausible transactions was used as the basis for calculations and the
results were then extrapolated to cover another 80 000 insufficiently identified transactions
(but not those transactions that involved non-qualifying vehicles or machinery). Thus the
analysis of the French scheme in this report covered 550 000 transactions.
Since the motor vehicle markets and domestic classifications are quite different for the US,
Germany and France, a simple class system had to be devised to fit the data for all three
countries. This class system was not exhaustively systematic as that would have demanded
a model-by-model vehicle data inspection, but coherence was kept through expert
knowledge of the models and the fleet classes in each of the countries, and the
corresponding emissions. In practice, the “heavier” class contains the largest light duty
vehicles, such as campervans, category 3 pick-up trucks in the US, and the largest light
commercial vehicles. The “medium” class contains very large passenger cars (e.g. Ford
Crown Victoria, Mercedes S-Class), the largest (7-seater) mini-vans, category 2 pick-up
trucks, SUVs and other commercial vehicles. The “lighter” class contains everything else –
mostly regular passenger cars.
Task 2: Impact on fleet composition
We analysed the influence of the three fleet renewal schemes on fleet composition and
compared this to a “business as usual” scenario (e.g. without the scheme). We also
assessed the impact of the schemes on the fleet composition and vehicle travel distance per
age group. The differences between the two scenarios were used to assess the final effect
on CO
2
and NO
x
emissions and road safety. The calculations also took into account the
observed shift in fuel mix (only between petrol and diesel; the influence of other fuels, like
LPG, CNG and high-blend biofuels, was not included in this study as their market share is
marginal and/or no data is available), since this also influences the total fleet emissions.
The time horizon of the scenarios used in our analysis was 20 years – reference years 2010
(year 0), 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. This makes it possible to draw conclusions on the
short (<5 years), medium (5-10 years) and long (>10 years) term effects of the schemes.
To calculate the impact on fleet composition, we estimated the distance that would have
been travelled by each age-class pair (e.g. 10 year old small cars) in the absence of the fleet
renewal scheme. We also estimated the lifetime distances travelled by the new vehicles as
well as the remaining fleet in comparison with a business-as-usual scenario. In the short-run
(2010) we assumed that that vehicle users will not change their usage patterns and thus the
fleet covered the same distance in both scenarios (with and without the fleet renewal
scheme in place). However, since the new vehicles have a longer lifetime than the scrapped
ones, the new fleet covers more distance in the long-run. The scrapped vehicles would have
kept getting older and thus would have travelled progressively less. The new vehicles would
display a similar erosion of travel distance with age but would start from much higher annual
levels of travel. In short, there is more total “lifetime” in the new fleet versus the scrapped
fleet. As a consequence, it could be argued that this approach leads to somewhat
conservative estimates for the impacts of the schemes - since the replacement fleet is
estimated to travel more than the one it replaces, some of the emissions and safety benefit